What does the trade dispute between the USA and China mean for German retailers? Logistics expert Micha Augstein analyses the situation.
The trade conflict between the USA and China is a highly topical issue - not just for these two players. Even if it looks like an agreement has just been reached, the last few weeks have been turbulent.
But here is a brief overview:
The situation has not only come to a head since the inauguration of the current US president; the tariff dispute began back in 2024 under Joe Biden. In May last year, comprehensive punitive tariffs were introduced on a large number of Chinese products. The justification: To protect domestic industry and combat unfair trade practices. The specific measures covered a wide range: from solar cells to steel and aluminium to medical products.
The result: Chinese goods were excluded from the American market. In total, these measures affected Chinese imports worth around 18 billion US dollars.
Under President Trump, new tariffs have been imposed this year and these have already had a significant impact. In April 2025, US goods imports fell by almost 20 per cent compared to the previous month, dropping from USD 344 billion to USD 276.1 billion. This was preceded by a massive restocking by companies in March to prepare for the planned punitive tariffs. As a result, average US tariff rates reached an all-time high. The US goods trade deficit almost halved from USD 163 billion to USD 87.6 billion. It should be noted that this is a short-term market reaction resulting from political intervention. As shocking as the historic high seems, it is to be expected that imports will stabilise again to some extent following the increased imports in March and the subsequent deficit in April.
China's reaction in 2024 was mild. The Chinese government perceived the tariffs as a tactical move during the election campaign. At the beginning of 2025, things were different: there were punitive tariffs on various goods such as coal and gas imports, as well as stricter controls on exports. There were also additional tariffs on all US imports. The situation then eased again as a result of the ongoing negotiations and the levels of these additional tariffs were drastically reduced.
And apart from the escalation with the USA, China is also pursuing a diversification strategy in order to reduce its dependence on the USA and other Western countries. This is already noticeable in trade with Western countries. The share of Chinese trade with the G7 countries has fallen from 48% in 2000 to 30% in 2024.
But what do we learn from this? What are the consequences for the global economy?
In recent weeks, many economists have warned of an escalation of the situation and the subsequent impact on Europe. This is because a trade conflict between the USA and China has far-reaching consequences for the global economy. The specific consequences are:
As a closely interlinked economic area, the EU undoubtedly feels the indirect effects of such a conflict – be it through disrupted supply chains, price increases for raw materials or dampened global demand. In this environment, strategic questions are becoming increasingly important: how can Europe position itself more independently, strengthen its economic resilience and safeguard its own key industries? One thing is clear: a trade dispute between the two superpowers directly affects Europe's economic stability and future viability.
Incidentally, the USA currently has a negative balance not only with China, but with almost all of its major trading partners. This is particularly noticeable in trade in goods with the EU, Mexico, China and Germany - including in the motor vehicle sector.
In addition to the general consequences, the trade dispute has also triggered a very specific concern among European economists and decision-makers in recent weeks: Because of the US punitive tariffs, China is still looking for new sales markets. And despite the diversification strategy, Europe is and will remain an important trading centre. Because of this, the EU is facing a flood of cheap Chinese products. Whether in the electric car or steel industry, tensions have been felt in recent weeks and months. Individual sectors in Germany have also complained about an increase in cheap Chinese imports in recent weeks. Punitive tariffs on electric cars from China have been in place since October 2024. Apart from this, the EU Commission is reacting cautiously and wants to examine and monitor how the situation develops.
What we have noticed: When the two largest economies clash, it doesn't happen in a vacuum. China's search for new sales markets has involved the EU in a concrete way. European retailers are feeling the consequences of the conflict in individual sectors. In recent weeks, the EU has been faced with the balancing act of effectively protecting its industry against increasing competition from cheap Chinese imports – without provoking its own trade conflict. This harbours risks for the European single market as a whole and could also have far-reaching consequences for the global economic system.
At the moment, however, we can breathe a sigh of relief. The USA and China grew closer again through the latest negotiations. An agreement was announced by the US President himself. The current pause in additional tariffs is to be maintained and the lower tariffs agreed in May are to remain in force until July. However, China is holding back on approving this news. Progress has been confirmed, but concrete details of implementation have not. Economists agree, however, that it is a step in the right direction.